Friday, February 24, 2006

IF I WERE AN IRANIAN WITH THE BOMB

News sites world wide are carrying the news this morning of a near-miss disaster for the oil-dependent west. VIA Reuters:

“Saudis foil attack on oil facility”

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyid=2006-02-24T151941Z_01_L24762555_RTRUKOC_0_US-SECURITY-SAUDI.xml&rpc=22

Two-thirds of Saudi Arabia’s 7.5 million barrel a day crude oil for export goes through this terminal. That’s about 12% of the oil exported worldwide…

Thinking out loud, darkly…

I’m the loon in charge of Iran. My mad scientists have managed to scrape together enough 95% U-235 to make a bomb. One bomb.

Where do I use it?

I could hit Haifa or Tel-Aviv. But it will be immediately obvious who did the deed, and the survivors will annihilate me. Likewise, I could attempt the more logistically difficult feat of attacking an American or European city, but terrible retaliation would still be almost certain.

One hundred fifty miles southwest of my border is the Achilles heel of the hated Western powers. It is controlled by people with whom I, a Persian Shiite, share neither religion nor ethnicity. Yet the relations between that Nation and my own are close enough I may be able to deny involvement.

It is vulnerable to a clandestine attack. That has been demonstrated before. It could be attacked by land or by ship.

And as a bonus, if the Abqaiq oil facility is destroyed, the price my country’s oil exports fetch will be greatly increased, and the increased prices will likely prevail for some time.

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Comments:
Go back to school (no, not the public one that taught/is teaching you) and do your research.

You must be really young and naive to believe Iran will be exporting oil (or anything for that matter, other than terrorists) following such a stupid act.

Iran's leaders are preaching from pages of the apocolypse and have no concern for the fallout (no pun intended) after they initiate what they believe to be the opening salvoes of what is intended to be the next great era of Islam.

This is the sad truth of the 'religion of peace'---they justify great death, expense and misery of their own people to further their goals.

Congrats, though...you've made a foray into deductive reasoning and intelligent thought. Just don't pull the trigger next time before you know what the barrel's loaded with (in this case, BS).
 
The Iranians are in a similar position to the Japanese prior to WWII. They believe there is only one obstacle to their goal of dominating the entire region--the US carrier fleets.

By neutralizing a US carrier fleet with a nuclear weapon, an attack immediately denied in their embassies in every corner of the planet, followed by closing the Strait of Hormuz with several scuttled commercial ships to throw the world into a deep economic crisis, they calculate enough international pressure to prevent US nuclear retaliation, and to reduce the conventional retaliation to ineffective levels. They also plan to use massive unconventional means to disrupt foreign capitals.

Secondary targets include using proxies to close the Suez Canal, thus blocking entrance from the Meditteranean, and using conventional missile attacks against US airbases in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Ironically, this strategy means that they do not have to attack Israel at all, figuring they can handle them later.

This arrogant strategy is filled with terribly flawed axioms, and completely ignores what the US might do to counter it, which is plenty.

Right now, we are in a pre-war end game, trying to convince Iran that its strategy will not work as a final ditch to get them to stop. We are also letting them know that unlike Iraq, we see a permanent solution in partitioning Iran after such an adventure, as punishment. So that if they lose this war, they will lose something they value highly, not just continue on, as did Saddam in post Gulf War One Iraq.
 
Anon, you couldn't be more wrong... Acting on incomplete information, BTW, shows your own lack of experience...

This was just a muse - one of many...

And please, get off the religion of peace shtick... That's a broken record. The political leaders of Iran are possibly insane but that doesn't mean they aren't cunning.

"to believe Iran will be exporting oil" My poor fool. The rest of the world requires that oil. Damn right they will exporting...

Its off-topic, but what none of this considers is the Chinese. Iran is increasingly becomming aligned with the one force on the planetthat can and likely will protect them from US. Within a couple of more years expect China to be getting almost all of Iran's oil. If Iran is in China's pocket, they will be mostly free to aggravate whoever they like, a long as the oil flows. And no, I don't think incitment of China's own rebellious minorities will dissuade China from dealing with this particular little devil...
 
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